In medieval times, you had to have the prophetic charisma of Nostradamus or the ability of an Augur to decipher auspices from chicken guts before your future predictions could be taken seriously. In our modern times, data from all kinds of sources imputed into complex computers has given us some ability to envision possible future outcomes. Weathermen can now give us an idea of how the weather for the next seven days will look—this would have been branded sorcery some centuries ago.
Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did some scientific “sorcery” of their own and gave us a report of Earth’s likely future outcomes concerning climate change. The IPCC is a United Nations (UN) body that assesses the science related to climate change and advances scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities.
The IPCC is run by a bureau of scientists elected by all the member states of the UN. The IPCC does no original research of its own. It, however, examines ALL the relevant scientific literature on climate change, with thousands of volunteer scientists and experts reviewing these publications. Their findings are then compiled into “Assessment Reports” (AR). The panel then presents these reports to policymakers and the general populace. Some have described this process as the largest ongoing peer review process in the scientific community.
From when it was founded in 1988 until 2022, the IPCC has published six assessment reports (and other minor reports on related topics) detailing the latest scientific knowledge on climate change. In March this year, it released a synthesis report that integrated the findings of the most recent assessment report (6th AR).
The full report is over 80 pages long. A summarized version for policymakers—a 40-page document—was also released for those who may have cringed from reading 80 pages of climate science stuff. If a 40-page document is just as intimidating to you as an 80-page document, you’ve found yourself reading the right article. Below are the highlights of the IPCC’s synthesis report—a summarized summary of what the IPCC saw when they looked into their crystal ball.
1. IT’S OUR FAULT.
Every finding that the IPCC published in the synthesis report is based on the evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement from all selected scientists from member states. For each finding, the IPCC has five levels of confidence, again based on evidence and agreement. These levels of confidence range from very low, low, medium, high, and very high.
The IPCC report asserts (with high confidence) that global warming and climate change are “unequivocally” caused by man’s activities, mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous oxide (N2O). Since the mid-19th century (which marked the onset of the Industrial Revolution), Earth’s global average temperature has risen by about 1.1°C. Historic, as well as ongoing, emissions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles, and patterns of consumption and production across regions and among individuals (yes, you).
In essence, if the current trend of climate change were a crime scene (and it is!), it would have humanity’s sooty fingerprints all over it. It’s important to understand this, as we would never see the need to take responsibility if we weren't aware that it’s our fault.
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY DOING THE MOST
Due to increasing global average temperatures (global warming), there are already widespread, rapid, and even irreversible changes in our atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems. These changes have led to far-reaching adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people. Vulnerable communities, which have historically contributed the least to current climate change, are disproportionately affected. The IPCC report makes this assertion with high confidence.
Anthropogenic climate change (that is, climate change secondary to human influence) has caused substantial and increasingly irreversible damage to ecosystems: local loss of species in the hundreds; mass human morbidity and mortality events due to extreme weather; reduced food and water security; and a host of other adverse impacts. These adverse impacts are set to continue to increase in frequency and severity (high confidence).
3. “WILL CLIMATE CHANGE END US?” WELL, IT’S UP TO US.
In the movie Avengers: Endgame, Dr. Strange, a sorcerer, looks into future timelines to see in which of them, the “Avengers” would defeat their arch-enemy, Thanos. He reports seeing a total of 14,000,605 future timelines in which the Avengers are successful in only one future possibility. The timeline they eventually ended up in would be determined by the actions they took (or did not take).
Using complex Integrated Assessment Models that took into consideration various socio-economic factors and climate mitigation ambitions, the IPCC came up with over a thousand future possibilities. These possibilities are grouped under likely future events, depending on how much we’re able to limit Earth’s warming.
In essence, the future timelines we may end up experiencing depend on whether we’re able to limit warming to below 1.5–2°C or if we let things heat up to 3, 4, 5 °C, or beyond. The IPCC is quick to state that these modeled scenarios and pathways are merely quantitative projections and not predictions, forecasts, or prophecies.
However, some things are certain. In the short term, global warming would continue to increase due to the already accumulated emissions. But what happens afterward depends on how much we’re willing to commit ourselves to making changes. Our best bet would be to limit Earth’s warming to below 1.5°C, but this would require deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in global emissions.
If we fail to limit warming, bigger changes in weather extremes and variability await us in the future. With every increment in global warming, climate risks, projected adverse impacts and related loss and damage would escalate. Both climate and non-climate risks would increasingly interact, compounding risks and making them even more difficult to manage. In short, things will get even “shittier” for Earth and its inhabitants if we don’t limit warming. The IPCC report asserts this with high confidence.
4. “WHAT MUST WE DO TO BE SAVED?”
We must act, and we must act fast. The longer we flounder in willful ignorance, indifference, or indecision, the adaptation options that are effective and feasible today will become less effective as time passes. We still have a shot at preventing Earth from becoming a hellscape. But that window is rapidly closing.
Now is the time to make a personal commitment to living a sustainable life. Keep learning about climate change and ways you can be part of the solution. Join and support initiatives around you that promote climate change adaptation and mitigation. Put pressure on your elected officials to make and implement policies that put people and the environment first.
There’s only one Earth. The least we can do for our future selves (and for our children) is to leave behind a world that humanity can keep thriving in. The Earth is our responsibility, and we must take care of it. That’s the only way it can continue to take care of us.
P.S.: This is a super summarized and paraphrased version of the IPCC’s Synthesis Report. Find the full report here: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
